Horizon
From verification to precaution.
The path along which the thesis extends: from the number that can be checked against the real to decisions where error carries consequences we cannot afford.
The proof.
Here an estimate can be checked against the real. Numbers are verified, uncertainty is made explicit, and it becomes clearer when a forecast earns trust.
The break.
Ordinary frequency is no longer enough. A system is put under stress to find where its assumptions give way.
Imagination.
The future has not happened yet. Hundreds of possible trajectories are explored, to see which consequences emerge and which scenarios do not hold.
The precautionary principle.
When consequences are irreversible, knowing how probable the harm is does not close the question. What remains is which exposure we are willing to accept. Here verification becomes infrastructure for the precautionary principle.